“The CSTO should not be passively silent now”
The situation in Kazakhstan forces political scientists to consider a variety of scenarios. Much will depend on how the authorities will act. But, probably, the Ukrainian scenario, when President Viktor Yanukovych was forced to flee the country, cannot be ruled out either. How will this affect Russian-Kazakh relations?
Photo by Nikolay Olkhovoy commons.wikimedia.org
A well-known military expert, editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine Igor Korotchenko believes that “the demolition of the legitimate government in Kazakhstan in the long term will lead to the exit of this country from the CSTO and the appearance of US military bases there, aimed at China (first of all!) And Russia. “. He wrote about this in his Telegram channel.
In his opinion, “the President of Kazakhstan Tokayev should withdraw the army from the barracks and suppress the armed rebellion by force of arms.” “Marauders, murderers and rapists must be shot on the spot. There is a Constitution, its protection is the direct responsibility of the first person of Kazakhstan. Delay is like death, “the political scientist believes.
At the same time, according to him, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) “should not be passively silent now, but make an official statement of full support for the legitimate president of Kazakhstan. By all available means. ”
In turn, American political scientist Dmitry Drobnitsky named the factors that make Kazakhstan an extremely important country for Russia. This is the presence of the Baikonur cosmodrome, which Russia leases from Kazakhstan. So far, the entire manned program of Russian cosmonautics is tied to Baikonur. The Plesetsk and Vostochny cosmodromes are not designed for manned launches.
The second factor is uranium deposits, which are the main source of fuel for Rosatom.
In addition, more than 3 million ethnic Russians live in Kazakhstan, whose fate will depend on who will be in power in Kazakhstan and what policy he will pursue towards the Russians.
It is worth adding the geographic factor. Now, through the territory of Kazakhstan and its airspace, there is a transport connection with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, where Russian military bases are located.